uncertainty quantification

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

Abstract This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to …

Coupled Lake-Atmosphere-Land Physics Uncertainties in a Great Lakes Regional Climate Model

Abstract This study develops a surrogate-based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and …

Active Learning for SNAP Interatomic Potentials via Bayesian Predictive Uncertainty

Bayesian inference with a simple Gaussian error model is used to efficiently compute prediction variances for energies, forces, and stresses in the linear SNAP interatomic potential. The prediction variance is shown to have a strong correlation with …

The Impact of Parametric Uncertainties on Biogeochemistry in the E3SM Land Model

We conduct a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), land model (ELM) to calculate the sensitivity of five key carbon cycle outputs to 68 model parameters. This GSA is conducted by first constructing a …