surrogate-modeling

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of …

Using a Surrogate-Assisted Bayesian Framework to Calibrate the Runoff-Generation Scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary …

Hit Twice by the Curse of Dimensionality; Spatio-Temporal Land Model Calibration using Karhunen-Loeve and Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Poster

Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in the E3SM Land Model using Surrogate Modeling

Talk

Dimensionality Reduction and Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Climate Land Models

Talk

Breaking Down the Computational Barriers to Real-Time Urban Flood Forecasting

Flooding impacts are on the rise globally, and concentrated in urban areas. Currently, there are no operational systems to forecast flooding at spatial resolutions that can facilitate emergency preparedness and response actions mitigating flood …

Dimensionality Reduction and Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks for Climate Land Models

Poster

Physics-informed Machine Learning for Uncertainty Quantification in E3SM Land Model

Talk

Physics-informed Machine Learning for Uncertainty Quantification in Land Models

Talk

A Novel Modeling Framework to Secure Efficiency and Accuracy in Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter …