fusion-nuclear

Bayesian Calibration of Fission Gas Diffusivity in Nuclear Fuels Using Multilevel Delayed Acceptance MCMC

We perform multilevel Bayesian calibration of a model for fission gas diffusivity in UO2 nuclear fuel. Specifically, we use a two-level delayed acceptance method that couples a machine learning surrogate for Xe and U diffusivities with a …

Bayesian Calibration of UO2 Creep Rates as a Tool for Accelerated Fuel Qualification

Mechanistic models informed by lower-length-scale simulations have a role to play in accelerating fuel qualification by enabling the use of separate effects tests to reduce uncertainty on model parameters that impact the predictions of in-reactor …

Mechanistic Multiscale Uncertainty Propagation in Support of Accelerated Fuel Qualification

Taking a nuclear fuel concept through the research, development, and qualification stages has historically taken on the order of 20 to 25 years because of extensive irradiation tests required for a variety of conditions. The concept of …

Bayesian Calibration with Summary Statistics for the Prediction of Xenon Diffusion in UO2 Nuclear Fuel

The evolution and release of fission gas impacts the performance of UO2 nuclear fuel. We have created a Bayesian framework to calibrate a novel model for fission gas transport that predicts diffusion rates of uranium and xenon in UO2 under both …

Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Coupled Multiphysics Model to Predict Surface Evolution in Fusion Plasma--Surface Interactions

We construct a global sensitivity analysis framework for a coupled multiphysics model used to predict the changes in material properties and surface morphology of helium plasma-facing components in future fusion reactors. The model combines the …

Quantification of the Effect of Uncertainty on Impurity Migration in PISCES-A Simulated with GITR

A Bayesian inference strategy has been used to estimate uncertain inputs to global impurity transport code (GITR) modeling predictions of tungsten erosion and migration in the linear plasma device, PISCES-A. This allows quantification of GITR output …

Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation for Impurity Migration

Poster

Uncertainty Quantification for Incident Helium Flux in Plasma-Exposed Tungsten

In this work, the surface response of a tungsten plasma-facing component was simulated by a cluster-dynamics code, Xolotl, with a focus on quantifying the impact of uncertainty in one of the input parameters to Xolotl, namely, the incident helium …

UQ Update - Fitting Models to Langmuir Probe Data

Talk