earth-system-models

Global Sensitivity Analysis, Probabilistic Calibration, and Predictive Assessment for the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model

In this paper we propose a probabilistic framework for an uncertainty quantification (UQ) study of a carbon cycle model and focus on the comparison between steady-state and transient simulation setups. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study …

High-Dimensional Surrogate Models and Global Sensitivity Analysis

Poster

Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model using Surrogates

We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological …

Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Climate Models

Poster

Surrogate Construction via Bayesian Compressive Sensing for the Community Land Model

Talk

Surrogate-Based Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Models in presence of High Dimensional, Dependent Inputs and Nonsmooth Outputs

Poster

Uncertainty Quantification given Discontinuous Model Response and a Limited Number of Model Runs

We outline a methodology for forward uncertainty quantification in systems with uncertain parameters, discontinuous model response, and a limited number of model runs. Our approach involves two stages. First we detect the discontinuity with Bayesian …

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling

Poster

Efficient Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies for High-Dimensional Climate Land Models

In this report, we proposed, examined and implemented approaches for performing efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) in climate land models. Specifically, we applied Bayesian compressive sensing framework to a polynomial chaos spectral …

Uncertainty Quantification given Discontinuous Climate Model Response and a Limited Number of Model Runs

Poster