Abstract This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to …
Abstract This study develops a surrogate-based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and …
Abstract Accurate simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is challenging due to uncertainties in representing convectively generated gravity waves. We develop an end-to-end uncertainty quantification workflow that calibrates these gravity …
Surrogate model development is a critical step for uncertainty quantification or other sample-intensive tasks for complex computational models. In this work we develop a multi-output surrogate form using a class of neural networks (NNs) that employ …
This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive …