bayesian-inference

Uncertainty Quantification in LES of Channel Flow

In this paper, we present a Bayesian framework for estimating joint densities for large eddy simulation (LES) sub‐grid scale model parameters based on canonical forced isotropic turbulence direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. The framework …

Probabilistic Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Computational Models I

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Density Estimation Framework for Model Error Quantification

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Model Error Quantification

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Density Estimation Framework for Model Error Assessment

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Global Sensitivity Analysis, Probabilistic Calibration, and Predictive Assessment for the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model

In this paper we propose a probabilistic framework for an uncertainty quantification (UQ) study of a carbon cycle model and focus on the comparison between steady-state and transient simulation setups. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study …

Bayesian Calibration of the Community Land Model using Surrogates

We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological …

On the Statistical Calibration of Physical Models

We introduce a novel statistical calibration framework for physical models, relying on probabilistic embedding of model discrepancy error within the model. For clarity of illustration, we take the measurement errors out of consideration, calibrating …

Probabilistic Methods for Sensitivity Analysis and Calibration of Computer Models in the NASA Challenge Problem

In this paper, a series of algorithms are proposed to address the problems in the NASA Langley Research Center Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge. A Bayesian approach is employed to characterize and calibrate the epistemic …

Density Estimation Framework for Model Error Assessment I

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