In this paper, we present a Bayesian framework for estimating joint densities for large eddy simulation (LES) sub‐grid scale model parameters based on canonical forced isotropic turbulence direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. The framework accounts for noise in the independent variables, and we present alternative formulations for accounting for discrepancies between model and data. To generate probability densities for flow characteristics, posterior densities for sub‐grid scale model parameters are propagated forward through LES of channel flow and compared with DNS data. Synthesis of the calibration and prediction results demonstrates that model parameters have an explicit filter width dependence and are highly correlated. Discrepancies between DNS and calibrated LES results point to additional model form inadequacies that need to be accounted for.