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A novel modeling framework to secure efficiency and accuracy in real-time ensemble flood forecasting

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter …

Embedded model error representation for Bayesian model calibration

Model error estimation remains one of the key challenges in uncertainty quantification and predictive science. For computational models of complex physical systems, model error, also known as structural error or model inadequacy, is often the largest …

Sparse Low Rank Approximation of Potential Energy Surfaces with Applications in Estimation of Anharmonic Zero Point Energies and Frequencies

We propose a method that exploits sparse representation of potential energy surfaces (PES) on a polynomial basis set selected by compressed sensing. The method is useful for studies involving large numbers of PES evaluations, such as the search for …

Compressive sensing adaptation for polynomial chaos expansions

Basis adaptation in Homogeneous Chaos spaces rely on a suitable rotation of the underlying Gaussian germ. Several rotations have been proposed in the literature resulting in adaptations with different convergence properties. In this paper we present …

Streamflow, stomata, and soil pits: sources of inference for complex models with fast, robust uncertainty quantification

The scale and complexity of environmental and earth systems introduce an array of uncertainties that need to be systematically addressed. In numerical modeling, the ever-increasing complexity of representation of these systems confounds our ability …

Uncertainty quantification for incident helium flux in plasma-exposed tungsten

In this work, the surface response of a tungsten plasma-facing component was simulated by a cluster-dynamics code, Xolotl, with a focus on quantifying the impact of uncertainty in one of the input parameters to Xolotl, namely, the incident helium …

Compressed sparse tensor based quadrature for vibrational quantum mechanics integrals

A new method for fast evaluation of high dimensional integrals arising in quantum mechanics is proposed. The method is based on sparse approximation of a high dimensional function followed by a low-rank compression. In the first step, we interpret …

Compressive sensing with cross-validation and stop-sampling for sparse polynomial chaos expansions

Compressive sensing is a powerful technique for recovering sparse solutions of underdetermined linear systems, which is often encountered in uncertainty quantification analysis of expensive and high-dimensional physical models. We perform numerical …

Exploring the Interplay of Resilience and Energy Consumption for a Task-Based Partial Differential Equations Preconditioner

We discuss algorithm-based resilience to silent data corruptions (SDCs) in a task-based domain-decomposition preconditioner for partial differential equations (PDEs). The algorithm exploits a reformulation of the PDE as a sampling problem, followed …

Global Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Model Error, toward Uncertainty Quantification in Scramjet Computations

The development of scramjet engines is an important research area for advancing hypersonic and orbital flights. Progress toward optimal engine designs requires accurate flow simulations together with uncertainty quantification. However, performing …